If you are newer tofantasy football, you might not realize it. You’ve only ever played in this era – which happens to be the golden age of fantasy football. It’s hard to fathom that, once upon a time, you got your information from a magazine and your statistics from the morning paper. Nowadays you can pull a computer out of your pocket and end any argument with the swipe of a screen.
Not only is the access greater, but the variety of stats is insane. At one point, “air yards” was considered groundbreaking, but now we have a huge variety of advanced metrics and machine learning that blow a stat like that out of the water. And I’m sure new stats will soon surpass those. There is no doubt that data has forever changed the way we approachfantasy football rankings. And you’ll see it again this year in expert mock drafts where philosophies are constantly advancing.
With all of that available to everyone, it’s more difficult than ever to get an advantage. That’s why, with this series, we are attacking one of the last few frontiers of value/perception. We’re taking some players with deeply held opinions on them and separating the fact from the fiction to see if there is value to be had there,like we already did with Kyler Murray. And today, we look at the perception and reality surrounding an even more polarizing player: Deshaun Watson.
Deshaun Watson’s Ability
Perception
The perception as of this moment is that Deshaun Watson is no longer the player that he was in Houston. And that he probably never will be again. And I’ve heard a number of explanations as to why that might be. Some have said that, following his off-field issues, his confidence is completely shot; that whatever sort of “mojo” he had is now gone. Or that maybe he doesn’t even want to play anymore. That he’s just going through the motions at his job the way you might working any other 9-5.
Perhaps he has lost the drive that made him great. It doesn’t help that Joe Flacco came out of left field last year to not only play great but to do it with a great attitude. The organization and the fans rallied around Flacco and he was rewarded with the NFL Comeback Player of the Year Award. Not to mention former Brown Baker Mayfield having the best year of his career with Tampa Bay. It’s hard to imagine being a Browns fan possibly getting worse, but over the last couple of years, it has.
Reality
The truth is that none of that tangibly matters for the upside of Deshaun Watson. Forget Joe Flacco, forget Baker Mayfield, forget new backup quarterbacks Jameis Winston and Tyler Huntley. The Browns made a major investment in Deshaun Watson and he’ll get every opportunity to show why they did so. He’s the starting QB for the Browns.
And it’s easy to forget how good Deshaun Watson can actually be. If you take all NFL quarterbacks of all time and sort them by fantasy points per game, Deshaun Watson shows up at third on the list behind only Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. We talked about this exact thing in ourPerception vs. Reality article with Kyler Murray (who is fourth on the list ahead of Lamar Jackson). Both players have gotten it done with different coaches, with different weapons and on teams that were some of the worst in the league. Watson for his career is at 20.64 points per game and last year, in five games that he played, he averaged 17.92. That includes two games he played with a broken shoulder blade and three games that the Browns won by three touchdown margins. The ability and playstyle are there.
We have all obviously seen what he’s capable of – you have, I have, the Browns have. There is a reason they traded for him and gave him the mega contract. And he’s still only 28 years old which is prime age for an NFL quarterback. So, to knock him, you essentially have to believe one of two things: that he’s lost his confidence (and ability to play). Or, that he’s suffered permanent injuries that have changed who he is as a player.
Deshaun Watson’s Health
Perception
This is an interesting topic. Because the average fan does not seem to even know that he’s been hurt. Or at least the extent of it. The perception on Watson is that he received a lengthy suspension and, when he came back, he simply wasn’t the same player that he was previously. Not that he’s been hurt.
Even those that recognize that he was dealing with an injury suggest that it couldn’t have been that bad if he was able to play through it. Some have even implied that he used the contract he had to dictate terms to the team,that he wasn’t playing because he didn’t want to. Obviously if you believe that is the case, then you would look at his stats last year when he did play and assume that he was healthy but just didn’t play well.
Reality
Of course, we now know the reality is that Watson attempted to play through a fairly serious injury. It was described during the season as a “rotator cuff issue” but it actually turned out that it was abroken bone that tore part of his labrum when it broke off. So, once they actually did the MRI and shut him down, they had to do major surgery to repair not only the glenoid that came off but also the partially torn labrum to make sure everything was stabilized.
Per comments from Dr. Neal ElAttrache, he wasshocked that Watson was able to play through the pain at all after suffering the injury during their Week 3 game. So, essentially what we have for a healthy Watson in Cleveland is a small sample size in 2022 where he returned from suspension in Week 13 after not having been able to be around the team, and then two healthy games in 2023. And one of those games last year was a 24-3 blowout win that didn’t require much passing.
I’m not ready to judge him based on that and say that’s simply who he is now. As far as the injury itself, Watson is actually ahead of schedule. There were questions on whether he would throw at all in the spring or summer, but he’s already backthrowing the ball with high velocity, and he eventook part in 7 on 7 drills during OTAs. They are still being incredibly cautious with the rehabilitation program but there’s no reason to believe he won’t be 100% to start the season.
Deshaun Watson’s Opportunity
Perception
The Browns are known as a “ground and pound” football team. Obviously, the defense has been tremendous, which goes a long way in allowing for that. Kevin Stefanski loves his tight ends and his power running game which isn’t necessarily what we want to see when it comes to lighting up the scoreboard. Even if Watson is still good, it might not be the best conditions to put up big points. It’s also not just Deshaun Watson where folks have questions about his talent and drive.
Amari Cooper has dealt with his share of criticism throughout his career. Injuries have been a problem for him and he’s now 30 years old. New wide receiver Jerry Jeudy also has some character concerns and has not lived up to his first round draft capital. The Browns just acquired him for a fifth and a sixth round pick, so we already know that he’s no longer viewed as a first round caliber talent. In fact, throw Elijah Moore in there as another attitude issue guy that was traded for far less than what he was drafted for.
Reality
The truth is that every team WANTS to run the football. You ask any coach if they'd rather play high-flying shootouts or just run the clock out with a smothering defense and pretty much everyone besides Kellen Moore would probably pick the latter. But, as we learned with the Browns last year with Joe Flacco at the helm, it doesn’t always work like that. Flacco got into plenty of shootouts with the Texans, Jets, Bears, etc. and threw for 300+ yards in five of the six games he started. With these same weapons (minus Jerry Jeudy).
In virtually all of those games, the Browns were towards the top of the league in both offensive snaps and pass attempts. We’ve seen Deshaun Watson have great stats on double-digit win teams with good defenses in 2018 and 2019. We’ve seen him have great stats on a 4-12 team. We’ve seen him do it with DeAndre Hopkins and we saw him do it without DeAndre Hopkins.
I just watched Amari Cooper and David Njoku have the best years of their career playing with backups. And, after suffering a serious injury, the Browns could be looking at starting the season without their stud running back Nick Chubb. With this schedule for the Browns that sees them face the Chiefs, Bengals and Dolphins in fantasy playoffs, I don’t see a world where they just cruise their way to victories running the football.
Fantasy Football ADP: QB Deshaun Watson
At the end of the day, ADP is everything in fantasy football. It’s about generating value. Right now, Watson goes outside the top 20 QBs in early best ball drafts and consensus on sites likeFantasyPros also has him ranked outside the top 20 QBs. It’s even worse in dynasty wheresites like KeepTradeCut have him as the QB25. Not only do I believe he can crack your lineup in best ball or start for you in superflex leagues, but I also believe that Watson has the upside to return to his past glory as an every-week QB1 in fantasy.
I’m not saying that you have to root for the guy personally. I’m not buying a Deshaun Watson jersey myself. All I care about is scoring fantasy points and winning leagues. At one point you could have gotten a discount on a guy like Tyreek Hill for the same reason. Now folks proudly draft him in the top half of the first round. Because he’s a great football player. And a healthy Deshaun Watson might still be a great football player as well.
